Administrator

>how did you compute 82% Reds winning rate?
You mean for model M2.
It is just the expectation.
For 9 of the matches it expects Reds to have a 0.9 chance of winning, so in those 9 matchs it 'expects' 8.1 victories. In the other match it expects Reds to have 0.09 chance of winning so in that match it 'expects' 0.09 victories. Ther total number of Reds victories M2 therefore expects over the 10 matches is 8.1 + 0.09 whihc is 8.2, i.e. it expects an 82% victory rate overall for Reds.
M1 expects Reds to have a 0.9 chances of winning each of the 10 games, i.e. it expects them to win 9 out of 10 matches, i.e. a 90% winning rate.
Since reds do actuallu win 90% of the games, M1 is perfectly calibrated (M2 is not) even though it is less accurate.
Norman
