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Error in page 133

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Error in page 133

Bayan AlMutawa
I think there is an error in chapter 6.. In page 133, to calculate that Norman is late in order to calculate the marginal, the equation there is
P(N=true) = P(N=True|T=True) P(T=True) + P(N=True|T=False) P(N=True|T=False)
This last part P(N=True|T=False) = .2 but in the solution its equals to .9, the right answer which is P(N=False|T=False) ?? I think from my understand that the number is right for this equation but the equation is probably mistyped.

Thanks and best regards,
Bayan
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Re: Error in page 133

norman@eecs.qmul.ac.uk
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Bayan

I'm away until Tuesday so will not have a chance to look at this until then. But thanks for pointing this out - I will post a correction on the web page 
once I have checked it. 

Norman Fenton

Sent from my iPhone

On 9 Feb 2013, at 15:19, "Bayan AlMutawa [via Risk Assessment with Bayesian Networks]" <[hidden email]> wrote:

I think there is an error in chapter 6.. In page 133, to calculate that Norman is late in order to calculate the marginal, the equation there is
P(N=true) = P(N=True|T=True) P(T=True) + P(N=True|T=False) P(N=True|T=False)
This last part P(N=True|T=False) = .2 but in the solution its equals to .9, the right answer which is P(N=False|T=False) ?? I think from my understand that the number is right for this equation but the equation is probably mistyped.

Thanks and best regards,
Bayan



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Re: Error in page 133

norman@eecs.qmul.ac.uk
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In reply to this post by Bayan AlMutawa
Bayan

I have now added this to the Errata page
http://www.bayesianrisk.com/errata.html

with an acknowledgement to you for poiting it out.

Norman Fenton


> I think there is an error in chapter 6.. In page 133, to calculate that
> Norman is late in order to calculate the marginal, the equation there is
> P(N=true) = P(N=True|T=True) P(T=True) + P(N=True|T=False)
> P(N=True|T=False)
> This last part P(N=True|T=False) = .2 but in the solution its equals to
> .9, the right answer which is P(N=False|T=False) ?? I think from my
> understand that the number is right for this equation but the equation
> is probably mistyped.
>
> Thanks and best regards,
> Bayan
>
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> If you reply to this email, your message will be added to the discussion
> below:
> http://risk-assessment-with-bayesian-networks.2318783.n4.nabble.com/Error-in-page-133-tp9.html
>
> To start a new topic under Risk Assessment with Bayesian Networks, email
> [hidden email]
> To unsubscribe from Risk Assessment with Bayesian Networks, click here
> <
> NAML
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